Monday, November 14, 2011

yaaaaaaaawn

Today would've been a nice day to just not bother opening the markets. There is absolutely no volume, and no news to speak of on this late fall Monday. Over the weekend, Silvio Berlusconi resigned as Italy's Prime Minister, and Mario Monti has been nominated to replace him. Monti is an economist by trade, who serves in the Italian senate. Greece's new PM is Lucas Papademos, whose background at the ECB also makes him a more finance savvy leader than his country had previously. While we go nuts over every headline, this should bring some, however minimal, comfort to the world. At least these countries are putting people in positions of power who have a clue as to how this whole economics thing works. While there will be no pretty way to work through the European debt woes, it is better to have people who realize what is at stake, how we may have gotten here, and perhaps even some ideas of how best to get out. It may seem pathetic, but in a world of economically clueless career politicians (thank you John Huntsman for addressing the Italian debt issue by discussing how bond prices move inversely to yields), it is nice to see some relatively capable minds at the helm.

Former convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff has been back and about and recently did an interview with CNBC. He has a a new book that he is promoting, and as such a few grains of salt are probably necessary when digesting his words. Nonetheless, in the interview Abramoff discussed how it is perfectly legal for senators to trade stocks based on the closed door political information they have. It is not insider trading in the way we might think, because such knowledge is not privileged knowledge about a public corporation. In other words, there is a difference between knowing Google's earnings, and knowing that there might be an economically stimulative plan forthcoming. Take a moment to think about which information is actually more important in today's market. Of course good earnings drive the market, but stimulative politics could mean even more. We have seen the effect that economic stimulus has on the markets, and to know such information in advance would be an enormous advantage (hard to see how you could lose if you just put on short duration trades). Perhaps there is a hidden positive in all this. If doing something in congress enables congressmen to trade... then maybe it will actually give them an incentive to do something.... but I won't hold my breath.

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