Sunday, June 17, 2012

Are the algos painting the tape to create more volatility?

As it looks like the Greek elections will keep unrest and panic at the way side at least temporarily, gold seems unsure about what to do with itself. Opening at 1630 (just above settle from Friday), only to drop to a low of 1606.9. With a high of 1631.3, we have just under a 25 dollar range.... and its only 9pm on Sunday. I was told it was a quick drop and snap-back. We are becoming more accustomed to these moves where we see rapid drops and then buybacks. It seems to me that these snap-back moves after fast and precipitous drops all take place at night. When the quick drops happen during the day, you rarely see the snap-back so fast. I don't think this is co-incidence.

Gold is not having an identity crisis. A wide range for early Sunday night is not indicative of the market's ambivalence as to whether or not gold is a safe haven asset. What is good for fiat currency should be bad for gold, until it can be substituted for it one day. With the conservatives getting the nod in Greece, for the moment, the Euro is safe. While it is true that a strong Euro (and relatively weaker dollar) is supportive in real dollar terms for gold, what is good for fiat currency is generally bearish for gold. But the obvious market manipulation we are seeing before our eyes tells far more than any macro trend in day to day gold trading.

How do the futures algos work and make money? I wish I knew. I do know that many have tried and failed at that game, but I don't know what it is that makes the winners win. What we can see however is that algos benefit from market volatility. If an algo benefits from more market volatility, why not paint the tape and show a wider range.... adding to the "uncertainty" of what this quandary we call gold is really all about. That should almost certainly ensure even more wide ranges during tomorrows trading. When there is movement, however they do it, the algos win. So I ask, if there is almost no volume around this time of night before London opens, why a quick sell off and snap back? Simple. Someone who wants to paint the tape does so when its cheapest, during times of low volume. On low volume, you can easily push the price both ways. Sell it down on relatively light volume, buy it back on relatively light volume, risk far less than you will benefit from a more volatile market the next day. So tomorrow, when the "is it a safe haven?" commentary hits the news wires, remember, they are playing directly into the hands of algo operators. If people don't understand this stupid commodity, well then ascribing a "fair value" should be all the more difficult. The more price movement, the more the algorithms can profit, the more stops they can try to run, and the more volatile gold gets. Let's be smarter than the mainstream media. It is the players in the market and the way they operate; not "the global picture" that really dictates the way gold trades.


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