Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Fed announcement....

As has been talked about here plenty of times before, gold always sells off on anything the Fed does... good or bad. Now that they're saying QE is on the back-burner, no surprise, we're sitting about 30 dollars below where we were pre-announcement We sit here at 1645,  8 dollars below support at 1653. I don't have the next levels on hand, but I would not try to buy this dip right here. A winner is probably good for 10 bucks, but I think another break below the low (currently 40.2) could lead to a serious momentum pile on. The S&P has recovered well, and made a low of 1399.5 (front month futures). We're 45 minutes away from the stock market close. 1400 is an important psychological level. If selling comes in on the close, and we break the low on the S&P, gold is for sure going with it. Its not the most likely of scenarios, but if it happens, the pain will be severe. Even before the Fed announcement  today, we saw gold sell off with far more conviction than the grind it made higher. Being long right now is a scary proposition, with a risk/reward profile that I think we could all do without.

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